Once hailed as the Kremlin’s masterstroke in sub-threshold warfare, the so-called “Gerasimov Doctrine” has shaped Western interpretations of Russian hybrid conflict since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. But as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on, its early fusion of psychological operations, information warfare, and kinetic ambiguity is giving way to an older, bloodier reality. This post reevaluates the Gerasimov Doctrine—where it came from, what remains relevant, and what recent failures suggest about its limits. Read More…
Not all cyberattacks are designed to be covert. In fact, some are intended to be seen, blamed, and remembered. This post explores the strategic logic of cyber signaling, examining when states want attribution, why visibility can be more powerful than damage, and how cyber swaggering reshapes the landscape of coercion in the digital age. Read More…
China’s strategy in the South China Sea has increasingly relied on “gray zone” operations—assertive, coercive actions just below the threshold of armed conflict. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that Beijing’s aggressive tactics may be backfiring. Rather than subduing rival claimants, China’s coercion has galvanized regional opposition, strengthened U.S. alliances, and escalated military posturing in ways that risk trapping Beijing in a costly, self-defeating cycle of confrontation. This blog post explores how China’s approach is unraveling and what this means for the future of maritime competition in the Indo-Pacific. Read More…
This blog explores how cyberattacks can function as tools of state coercion. Drawing from over 400 cyber incidents, the research shows that more severe attacks increase the likelihood of concessions from targeted states—contrary to the belief that such operations only provoke defiance. While deep intrusions like Trojans may reduce compliance, rapid, disruptive actions like information operations appear more effective. The findings highlight how cyber tools are reshaping diplomacy and conflict strategy in the digital age. Read More…
