Artificial Intelligence is no longer an experimental add-on to national security—it’s becoming the neural spine of modern intelligence operations. As AI systems integrate into collection, analysis, and dissemination, they reshape not just how intelligence is produced, but how decisions are made, risks are assessed, and policies are formed. Yet, the transition from human intuition to machine-assisted forecasting introduces a new tier of ethical, strategic, and operational complexity that intelligence professionals must now navigate. Read More…
In the wake of 9/11, U.S. surveillance capabilities expanded dramatically under laws like the USA PATRIOT Act. But as digital communication has evolved, so have concerns about privacy, constitutional overreach, and the legitimacy of intelligence operations. This post examines the historical and legal roots of American surveillance and argues for a rebalanced framework that upholds national security without undermining civil liberties. Read More…
Innovation and hybrid warfare are reshaping intelligence operations. Western agencies must adapt — or risk being outmaneuvered by states fusing crime, covert action, and irregular tactics. Read More…
Recent research challenges the conventional belief that rebellion thrives only where the state is weakest. Instead, some of the most formidable rebel movements emerge not from the periphery, but from capital cities—while rulers respond through transnational alliances crafted for their own political survival. This week, we examine how we understand rebellion and state behavior in civil war. Read More…
Foreign policy disasters—like the Iraq War—often stem not from bad intelligence alone, but from flawed decision-making processes. Research shows that open, inclusive, and structured processes significantly reduce misjudgment and increase national success. When leaders suppress dissent and ignore institutional feedback, the consequences can be catastrophic. Read More…
This blog explores how cyberattacks can function as tools of state coercion. Drawing from over 400 cyber incidents, the research shows that more severe attacks increase the likelihood of concessions from targeted states—contrary to the belief that such operations only provoke defiance. While deep intrusions like Trojans may reduce compliance, rapid, disruptive actions like information operations appear more effective. The findings highlight how cyber tools are reshaping diplomacy and conflict strategy in the digital age. Read More…
