Once hailed as the Kremlin’s masterstroke in sub-threshold warfare, the so-called “Gerasimov Doctrine” has shaped Western interpretations of Russian hybrid conflict since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. But as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on, its early fusion of psychological operations, information warfare, and kinetic ambiguity is giving way to an older, bloodier reality. This post reevaluates the Gerasimov Doctrine—where it came from, what remains relevant, and what recent failures suggest about its limits. Read More…
China’s strategy in the South China Sea has increasingly relied on “gray zone” operations—assertive, coercive actions just below the threshold of armed conflict. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that Beijing’s aggressive tactics may be backfiring. Rather than subduing rival claimants, China’s coercion has galvanized regional opposition, strengthened U.S. alliances, and escalated military posturing in ways that risk trapping Beijing in a costly, self-defeating cycle of confrontation. This blog post explores how China’s approach is unraveling and what this means for the future of maritime competition in the Indo-Pacific. Read More…
Innovation and hybrid warfare are reshaping intelligence operations. Western agencies must adapt — or risk being outmaneuvered by states fusing crime, covert action, and irregular tactics. Read More…
